The Dallas Mavericks have staved off — and possibly detonated — the Utah Jazz in six games of their first-round series in the 2022 NBA playoffs. As a reward, they get a second-round matchup against the reigning Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns.
The Mavs will be the underdogs in this clash, as the Suns cruised their way through the regular season to the best overall record in the league at 64-18 — eight games ahead of the second-place Memphis Grizzlies.
The New Orleans Pelicans showed that the Suns shouldn’t be a shoo-in for the Finals, however, stretching their first-round series to six games. It should be noted that the Pelicans weren’t a usual eight seed, as they added star guard CJ McCollum and invaluable big Larry Nance Jr. before the trade deadline and became a markedly more dangerous team as a result.
Still, New Orleans proved that Chris Paul and the Suns do bleed and that they’re far from infallible. After all, it took a literally perfect game from CP3 (14-14 from the field) to edge out the Pelicans by six points in their final game, finishing with only a +9-point differential for the series.
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New Orleans showed a possible weakness in the Phoenix Suns that the Dallas Mavericks might be able to exploit in their upcoming matchup. The Pelicans were able to combat Phoenix’s excellent two-way play by deploying length, speed, athleticism, and shooting. Their best lineup by far was a small-ball configuration that featured CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, and Larry Nance Jr. That squad finished an astounding +17 in a little under 12 minutes played.
In contrast, New Orleans’ usual jumbo starting lineup featuring CJ, BI, Jones, Jaxson Hayes, and Jonas Valanciunas was repeatedly picked apart by the Suns, finishing a -18 in nearly 75 minutes on the floor together.
The Mavericks have the roster necessary to stretch out Phoenix’s defense, speed up the pace, and potentially play Deandre Ayton off of the floor. Between Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans, they have two big men capable of stretching out to the 3-point line and neutralizing Ayton’s rim protection. They could even opt to go ultra-small with Dorian Finney-Smith at the center if necessary.
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Ayton’s size and scoring touch on the interior will be an incredibly difficult problem for Dallas to try to solve with their traditional centers and ordinary defensive schemes. If they can take him out of the series with speed and shooting, they’ll be taking away both Phoenix’s interior offensive presence and their defensive anchor.
Dallas doesn’t have the defenders necessary to match Phoenix’s balanced attack that features multiple ball-handlers and offensive threats, so their best option would be to try to outgun the Suns. Between Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, and the newly enlightened Jalen Brunson, the Mavericks have plenty of ammunition to try to down the Suns in a firefight.
If they deploy their three-headed guard monster at the same time, they could force Phoenix to rely on Devin Booker — the Suns’ weakest point-of-attack defender — to play on an island against one of them without Ayton holding down the backline.
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Regardless of how coach Jason Kidd chooses to approach this series, the Dallas Mavericks will need Luka Doncic to be the best player in a series that features Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Doncic is certainly equal to the task, but he’ll be facing a defense that might be better than even the Los Angeles Clippers’ myriad wing defenders that he failed to get past two years in a row.
Nevertheless, this could turn out to be the best series of the second round and might be a lot closer than pundits initially expect.
