Tom Thibodeau has has a positive impact on the New York Knicks, with an 11-14 record entering Monday. If the playoffs started today, they’d be the No. 8 seed in the East.
As expected under Thibodeau, the Knicks improvement has been driven by defense. They are a top-10 rated defensive team (107.9 points per 100 entering Sunday). They are also the top-ranked scoring defense in the league (104.6 points per game).
But the Knicks are a bottom-10 rated offensive team, and the lowest-scoring team in the league (102.7 points per game). So it’s not too surprising they’d like to added offense. Over the weekend reports said Derrick Rose is coming from the Detroit Pistons, in a deal that’ll send Dennis Smith and a 2021 second-round pick to Detroit.
Rose is averaging 14.2 points and 4.2 assists per game this season, on close to 43 percent shooting (33 percent from 3-point range). He spent the 2016-17 with the Knicks, so this will be his second go-round. He is also reuniting with Thibodeau, after playing for him with the Chicago Bulls and for one season with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Austin Rivers is the odd-man out in Knicks backcourt
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out the glut of guards for the Knicks with the acquisition of Rose. He specifically mentioned Elfrid Payton and Austin Rivers, with focus on Rivers being a trade target for contending teams.
“Rivers is likely to become a player whom contenders seek in trade talks as teams look to fortify backcourts closer to the March 25 trade deadline.”
Thibodeau has an allergy to playing rookies. As Sam Quinn of CBS Sports cited recently, Immanuel Quickley is his victim this year. It’s not that Payton is unworthy of being the Knicks’ starting point guard, or that he’s not a good player. But Quickley has upside Payton doesn’t, and it’s being limited.
It’s safe to say Payton will not be traded, since Thibodeau values his defense. But Rivers’ value is driven by offense, and the domino effect of Rose’s arrival will flow down to him. For Rivers, fewer minutes=fewer opportunities/shots=less value.
The Knicks shoot the second-fewest 3-pointers in the league (27.6 per game), and Rivers is one of five guys attempting more than four per game. Rose gives them four guards who are at or approaching 30 years old, joining Rivers, Reggie Bullock and Alec Burks. That is not ideal for a supposed rebuild, even if it’s a facade with Thibodeau as the coach.
Rivers signed a three-year deal worth just shy of $10 million as part of the sign-and-trade that brought him to the Knicks in the offseason. But the last two years of his deal are non-guaranteed. Those years become fully guaranteed a week after the free agent moratorium starts each offseason (according to Spotrac).
Rivers has what amounts to an expiring contract. His playing time in a clogged guard rotation has already been in decline. Rose’s arrival stands to push him further down the pecking order, and right out of town by the Mar. 25 trade deadline. The Knicks might as well put a “For Sale” sign on Doc’s son.
