How will the Raptors close tight games?
The typical sentiment towards teams without a tier one superstar, is they lack the ability to close-out games late in the fourth quarter. Team basketball, and scoring by committee through ball movement is a perfect way to win games, but it doesn’t win the close ones, or playoff games.
Sometimes it’s important to have a guy that you can turn to in those situations to get you a bucket. The type of guy that isn’t reliant upon a specific action working, or teammates to get him open.
For the Toronto Raptors last year, that was Kawhi Leonard, and he was sure good at it. Multiple times in the series’ against the 76ers, Bucks, and Warriors, Kawhi took over within the last five minutes, and single handedly pulled out tight wins for Toronto.
Pascal Siakam has been implemented into the role of a number one option offensively this year, and has thrived thus far. The simple solution is to slide Siakam into the role of a closer, but it might not be that easy.
The lack of a pull-up jumpshot, and inconsistent 3-pointer can make closing games hard when the entire defense has its sights set on you. Kyle Lowry is another interesting example. However, as a guard who stands at 6-feet on a good day, it can be difficult for him to create enough separation to get a good shot off.
However, the stats don’t necessarily cement these assumptions. The Toronto Raptors have been one of the best offensive teams in the clutch this season. With an offensive rating at 121.5, which places them second in the league, and an effective field goal percentage of 56.5% in clutch situations, the Raptors have experienced limited trouble scoring the ball in crunch time.
As for the two stars, Siakam has shooting splits of 51/33/81 in clutch minutes, and Lowry sits at a remarkable 48/43/81.
I will follow these statistics up by pointing out that the Raptors are locked at ninth in the league at assist percentage at 62.6%. This isn’t a bad thing at all. In fact, it would be viewed by most as a positive that they move the ball so well and score off assists. The only reason this may have a downside, is they still may lack the type of player who can take over a game, and go “mano a mano” against anyone.
Toronto may simply have to close out games by relying on their smart decision making, and creative coaching from Nick Nurse. We haven’t seen a team win a championship without a legitimate go-to player since the 2004 Detroit Pistons, which don’t blink now, was nearly 20 years ago.
Siakam has had moments where he has hit clutch shots of isolation situations, but a lot of them have been driving hard to the net. Defenses will be more keyed in on his tendencies, and protecting the rim in a playoff setting, which will force Pascal to rely on his jumper a lot more often.
It should be intriguing to see if Lowry or Siakam can jump into a tier-one star caliber of player for the Orlando bubble, or if Toronto will be forced to rely on being better than the sum of their parts in closing time.
