Goal #3: Finish Top 10 in 3-Point Makes & Efficiency
Cleveland is going to have a significant drop-off in wins this year. Losing the best player in the league will do that, as James carried the team on his back. Now with the Cavaliers presumably having more balance, a bigger collection of players will have to chip in offensively.
Love will need to have at least 20 points per game in a relatively efficient manner, along with gobbling up around 11 rebounds every night (his career average is 11.3, so that’s not unreasonable). Cleveland will need their lone All-Star to score via post-ups, elbow touches, spot-ups, and at times, putbacks. He’s proven himself already beyond the arc, anyhow.
Success in the NBA in 2018 is largely predicated on the perimeter, nonetheless. Throughout the last four years (due to James’ passing wizardry), Cleveland was among the league leaders in three-point shooting efficiency and volume.
Last season, the Cavs ranked third in threes made per game (12.0) and were fifth in three-point accuracy (37.2 percent), per NBA.com. If the Cavs are going to go to the playoffs, they’ll need efficient shooting from deep. George Hill, Osman, Hood, J.R. Smith, and in (spot minutes) Channing Frye should help in that regard. Ranking in the top ten in makes and the top half of the league in efficiency could go a long way for Cleveland. With Love’s ability to score and distribute inside the arc, there should be just enough spacing.
With Hood’s ability to find slithers in the defense off the ball via screens from Nance, Korver, and Tristan Thompson, that should lead to quality looks. He and Osman will have their chances to rise up from deep via pick-and-roll and when defenses lose them at times in the corner.
Drives from Sexton and from defensive attention focused on Love and Korver should provide that room. Hood, a 36.1 percent lifetime three-point shooter (with a healthy 45.6 percent three-point attempt rate per Basketball-Reference), and Osman, a 36.8 percent shooter from deep last year, should be operating in high-usage roles outside.
Sexton’s a lightning quick slasher that will also have plenty of chances to make things happen. He’ll get downhill and score via drives and mid-range pull-ups. As the season progresses, Cleveland will be more dynamic with him starting at the point. Hill will likely start initially, but should be moved to the bench before the turn of the year. Like Korver and Smith, he is a prime trade candidate (with only $1 million guaranteed in 2019-2020, via Spotrac). Hill is a solid veteran contributor on both ends, but Sexton is Cleveland’s future.
Despite not being a good perimeter shooter (just 33.6 percent from deep in one season at Alabama), Sexton (and at times Clarkson’s) speed should be able to create open looks for teammates. As he gains more NBA experience, his vision and passing accuracy to the shooting pocket should improve.
Even if the Cavs do eventually trade a combination of Korver, Hill, and Smith (all proven perimeter shooters), other Cleveland shooters will have their chance. Increased volume and likely a faster pace should aid in the shooting development of the youngsters. Plus, offensive rebound kick-outs from Nance, Love, Tristan Thompson and occasionally Ante Zizic should help in that regard.
Next Up: Goal 2
